The Looming Shadow: Trump's Trade Policies and the Strain on China's Job Market

The prospect of renewed trade tensions between the United States and China under a potential future Trump administration casts a long shadow over China's economic landscape, particularly its job market. While no new policies have been enacted recently, the rhetoric and historical precedent suggest a potential return to protectionist measures, including tariffs and trade restrictions. Such policies, if implemented, would likely exert significant pressure on Chinese businesses, leading to increased unemployment and necessitating a robust response from the Chinese government, alongside proactive strategies for Chinese workers.

The primary impact of Trump's previous trade policies was a disruption of established global supply chains and a decrease in Chinese exports to the United States. Tariffs on goods ranging from electronics to textiles made Chinese products more expensive for American consumers, leading to reduced demand. This directly affected Chinese manufacturers and export-oriented industries, forcing some to scale back production, delay expansion plans, or even close down entirely. The consequence was a tangible rise in unemployment, particularly in coastal manufacturing hubs that heavily relied on international trade. While official Chinese unemployment figures may not always fully reflect the reality, anecdotal evidence and reports from the ground indicated a significant strain on the labor market.

Faced with this challenge, the Chinese government has historically employed a multi-pronged approach to mitigate the negative impacts of trade disputes. These strategies often include:

• Fiscal Stimulus: Injecting capital into the economy through infrastructure projects and tax cuts for businesses to boost domestic demand and create jobs.
• Monetary Policy Adjustments: Lowering interest rates and reserve requirements for banks to encourage lending and investment.
• Support for Domestic Consumption: Implementing policies to encourage domestic spending, such as subsidies for certain goods or promotional campaigns.
• Diversification of Trade Relationships: Actively seeking new trade partners in regions like Southeast Asia, Africa, and Latin America to reduce reliance on the US market.
• Investment in Technology and Innovation: Shifting focus towards high-value-added industries and technological self-reliance to reduce dependence on foreign markets and create new, higher-skilled jobs.
• Social Safety Nets: Strengthening unemployment benefits and providing retraining programs for displaced workers.

Despite these efforts, the Chinese government faces significant hurdles in completely offsetting the impact of substantial trade barriers. The sheer size and interconnectedness of the global economy mean that a major disruption in trade with a key partner like the United States inevitably has ripple effects. Some of the key difficulties include:

• Scale of the Impact: The US market remains a crucial destination for many Chinese goods. Finding alternative markets of comparable size and purchasing power takes time and significant effort.
• Supply Chain Complexity: Many Chinese industries are deeply integrated into global supply chains. Disruptions can impact not only exports to the US but also access to essential components and technologies.
• Job Market Mismatch: Retraining programs may not always perfectly align displaced workers with the skills needed for emerging industries. This can lead to a mismatch between available jobs and the skills of the unemployed.
• Long-Term Economic Restructuring: The shift towards a more domestic consumption-driven and technologically advanced economy is a long-term process that cannot be accelerated overnight.

For middle-aged professionals in China navigating this uncertain economic climate, proactive career management is crucial. Here are some strategies to consider:

• Upskilling and Reskilling: Identify industries with growth potential, such as technology (AI, cloud computing, semiconductors), healthcare, renewable energy, and advanced manufacturing. Invest in acquiring new skills and knowledge through online courses, vocational training, or further education.
• Embrace Digital Transformation: Develop digital literacy and skills relevant to the evolving workplace. This includes data analysis, online marketing, and proficiency in various software and platforms.
• Explore Domestic Market Opportunities: With the government's emphasis on boosting domestic consumption, consider career paths in sectors catering to the local market, such as e-commerce, domestic tourism, and services.
• Consider Entrepreneurship: For those with relevant experience and a risk appetite, starting a business in a promising sector can be a viable option. Government support for small and medium-sized enterprises may be available.
• Network and Seek Mentorship: Build a strong professional network and seek guidance from experienced professionals in desired fields. Networking can open doors to new opportunities and provide valuable insights.
• Be Adaptable and Resilient: The job market is constantly evolving. Cultivate adaptability and a willingness to learn and adjust to new circumstances. Resilience in the face of setbacks is essential for long-term career success.
• Consider Geographic Mobility: Be open to relocating to cities or regions with stronger economic growth and more job opportunities in emerging industries.

In conclusion, while the immediate future of US-China trade relations remains uncertain, the potential for renewed trade tensions poses a significant challenge to China's job market. The Chinese government will likely continue its efforts to mitigate the impact through various economic policies. However, for middle-aged professionals, taking proactive steps to adapt their skills and career paths will be crucial for navigating these turbulent times and ensuring long-term employability. Staying informed about economic trends, investing in continuous learning, and embracing adaptability will be key to weathering the storm and seizing new opportunities in a changing economic landscape.

FNS.HK SamCheng

8/4/2025

Job Posting （HK）

  (HongKong0304/2025)  

Position Description

1. Must meet the residency and work requirements in Hong Kong. (Mandatory)  

2. Experience in medical device marketing, including but not limited to market policy formulation, price adjustments, optimization of agency mechanisms, contract negotiations, procurement, and payment collection.  

3. Familiarity with the PCR or POCT field is preferred. Our products cover not only the human medical market (rapid testing in hospitals and clinics—biochips and PCR-related) but also extend to veterinary clinics, customs quarantine, and other application scenarios. If you have existing channels, key clients, or are familiar with KOLs in these areas, you are eligible.  

4. Understanding of foreign trade, experience in organizing exhibitions, working with distributors, and handling academic conferences.  

5. Ability to lead a direct Hong Kong-based team of at least three members, with familiarity with Hong Kong workplace culture.  

Team Overview

1. Headquarters is located in Shenzhen, making travel between Hong Kong and Shenzhen very convenient. Factories are in Zhuhai and Qingdao.  

2. Established for six years with stable operations, led by a team of PhD graduates from HKUST, possessing international patents in chip technology.  

3. Simple, young, and efficient organizational culture.  

Additional Information 

1. If you have extensive resources in your field and are hesitant to switch jobs, we are open to flexible employment or project-based collaboration. Once mutual trust is established, we can determine an employment strategy.  ①

2. If you do not have experience in the mentioned fields but have relevant channels or client resources, you may refer to point ① above.  

Please carefully assess your fit for the role before reaching out. We will respond as soon as possible.  

Other Information

- Language Requirements: Cantonese + English  

- Industry: Electronics / Semiconductor / Integrated Circuits  

- Work Location: Hong Kong Convention and Exhibition Center  

- Pre-Tax Monthly Salary: 35K  

- Email: support@jobs852.top

“Workplace” Opium

（Pic from BBC UK China）

The story of Lin Zexu’s opium ban has moved countless people. The opium was successfully banned, but there is a secret known to the whole world but not spoken: tobacco was not banned. Why is the harmful tobacco that is ubiquitous in the streets not banned from sale and use? It is said that in our country, it is still a problem that the people cannot discuss. It is probably due to the culture of seeing new clothes with wisdom, and in the end, it all belongs to the leeks.

Today, I’m going to quietly talk about a ‘big smoke’ in the workplace, which should not be banned but is addictive and harmful: workplace bureaucracy. Logically speaking, the workplace is all about workers, and there shouldn’t be such a mysterious thing as bureaucracy. You think, you want to contribute to the company, how could someone make it difficult for you? For example, your boss obviously gave a high price when purchasing, do you want to correct him? No matter how good your communication skills are, the result is likely to cause trouble. Isn’t it the education from childhood to be just and honest? Why can’t errors be corrected? And it’s not an officialdom in the workplace, right?!

What we consider first is the issue of face, which Lu Xun has seriously said, face is often heard in our conversations, because it seems to be understood as soon as you hear it, so there are not many people who think about it carefully. The second is the organizational status, he is the leader, in the hearts of the people, he is an official, why not study carefully, how to do it is mostly flattery and accommodation. Turning a blind eye is considered mature.

I think it’s big smoke, because who is not a princess with this feeling of being held up by people, the self-cognition is inflated, and the one who is harmed is oneself. In our Guangdong region, from our ancestors to our fathers to us and then to inheritance, we are all doing things solidly, so solidly that people dislike it. In many salons and forums, I publicly express that private enterprises should not have a bit of bureaucratic style, otherwise it will cause big company disease and extremely low organizational efficiency. Such remarks are of course regarded as lack of wisdom and height, and peers also kindly remind me that power is advanced, and we as consultants should give people a profound impression. In real life, I’m not so stupid, I just don’t want to deceive myself and others. In an era when even oneself is deceived, you can’t hear any truth.

Everyone sees those so-called star-level professional managers on the Internet, learning to make new words every day, fooling concepts, making a catchy phrase is a personal golden sentence, what knowledge can everyone learn?! You are just traffic in front of those big shots, what he wants is money, not social responsibility or personal sharing. As long as you are happy, willing to like, willing to forward, they will cater to your preferences, tell you to use means to suppress subordinates for a while, and then say that giving a carrot is clever, making you confused, it seems very powerful but you don’t know whether to do it or not. Even the emperor’s way, Cao Cao’s unfaithfulness, and how great achievers are. I hope that young workplace people will watch less of these videos, read less management books with mysterious titles, learn more English, and read more management classics or business school textbooks. If you start learning wrong, it will take a long time to quit.

The most precious thing in life is time, everything else is casual.

 Axiong's Essay

The Destruction of Sora

(video from : openai.com)

Many friends have left comments saying they want to hear more about Sora from Axiong. Due to limitations, I can only talk about the impact on human resources. Before watching the video, I suggest everyone judge from a physical logic perspective whether this is a real or virtual world. It seems redundant, but it can trap many people’s thinking. If you let an animation designer decide, the dog probably wouldn’t jump through another window. Because the window page is obviously wider than the window sill, but the dog ignores this basic physical knowledge and goes straight through. However, the key point is, when you watch the video, do you pay more attention to the dog’s actions and expressions, or the boring window page? The answer is also obvious, who cares about boring things? People! People care very much about how others see them, so they disregard the physical world when creating?! So, the reason why cartoons are shown to children is because the adult world is too boring, too limited, and there are too many bottlenecks in innovation.

More than ten years ago… I’m going to brag again, everyone sit tight. I was invited by a friend to participate in a small gathering with a well-known author of a suspense novel. Unfortunately, Axiong does not like to read such works, so there was no excitement, but we naturally talked about creation. I asked, how can readers empathize and feel as if they are on the scene? So that the work is so perfect and popular. He smiled bitterly and said it was all tormented. Almost every sentence is struggling in torment and paleness, overthrown again and again, I don’t even know how I survived. In short, creation and innovation are too difficult, difficult because one’s cognition is bound by experience and worldly conventions.

When the model is mature enough, Sora has no similar restrictions, and even within seconds, it becomes N plots that people can’t predict at all. Therefore, the future screenwriter may be a bunch of code integrated by programmers, and then no people are needed.

So, what is the significance of studying for a PhD in directing, film and television, and even artistic creation? Is it nostalgia?!

Axiong’s Essay

Career Bottlenecks: The Futility Argument

Have you ever doubted yourself, wondering if there's still a chance to shake off mediocrity and become a star in the workplace? More than once, right? Whether it's facing setbacks, being sidelined, getting fired, or just feeling weary over time, you inevitably fall into the trap of "self-imposed limitations."

Taking advantage of a short break, Ah Xiong has updated a brief guide, supplemented with references.

First, let's see what's different between you and a workplace star: attention management. You read that right, it's not just something schoolchildren need to train for; adults are more likely to overlook the effectiveness of their attention. For example, you see on the internet that elites in Hong Kong's Central are in the gym at 5 a.m., every day; you might think they're "crazy" or just being pretentious, but in reality, our attention is most focused in the morning, which affects the "rhythm" of your entire day. How do most other professionals start their day? Groggily propping themselves up, not to mention fighting with conviction, but rather just to get by, with few days filled with anticipation and motivation on their way to work.

Next, let's look at the factors of self-limitation: comfort zones, fear of the unknown, social pressure, self-doubt, avoidance of failure, and the most brutal of all: lack of goals and motivation.

1. **Comfort Zones**: People tend to stay within areas where they feel comfortable and safe. Venturing beyond their capability boundaries can bring uncertainty and discomfort, so they prefer to act within familiar confines.

2. **Fear and Uncertainty**: Faced with the unknown and potential failure, many people feel fear. They are afraid to try new things or pursue bold goals because they worry that failure will bring pain or shame.

3. **Social Pressure**: Social and cultural expectations can limit an individual's actions. People may feel pressure from family, friends, colleagues, or society to behave in a certain way, leading them to self-impose limitations and avoid taking risks or challenging the status quo.

4. **Self-Doubt**: Many lack confidence in their abilities, doubting whether they are good enough or capable of achieving their goals. This self-doubt can lead to self-imposed limitations and a reluctance to try and exceed their limits.

5. **Avoiding Failure**: Fear of failure can lead people to avoid taking risks or trying challenges. They may choose to maintain the status quo rather than face potential failure or setbacks.

6. **Lack of Goals and Motivation**: The absence of life goals often stems from a lack of cultivation of values and worldviews in education. Do you believe that most adults find it difficult to articulate their relationship with the world and their value in society? In the scarce genetic imprint of history, people are more concerned with survival and means of production, without seriously contemplating life. Without goals, the only motivation left is money; organizing means of production, being a boss, or a leader is seen as a glorifying existence. This seemingly abstract and elusive cognition creates an unreachable distance for many.

Finally, a few words on the impact of psychological suggestion on the futility argument. Professionals like to read motivational quotes, but in fact, they are a slow poison because you see your own "shortcomings," many of which are expectations you simply do not meet. Simply put, the more you read about grand principles and others' successes, the more you'll belittle yourself, forming a continuous negative psychological suggestion. If you want to delve deeper into the mechanisms and cases of psychological suggestion, pay attention to the following experiments:

a. **Stanford Prison Experiment**: Conducted by psychologist Philip Zimbardo in 1971, this experiment aimed to study the impact of the prison environment on individual behavior. Participants were divided into guards and prisoners, and it was found that the guard group gradually exhibited cruel and power-imposing behaviors, while the prisoners showed passive and negative attitudes.

b. **The Hawthorne Effect**: A series of experiments conducted at the Western Electric Company in Illinois, USA, from 1924 to 1932. The results indicated that employees changed their behavior when they were aware they were being studied, revealing the so-called "observation effect."

c. **Bruce Lipton's Psych-K**: Although not a traditional psychological experiment, Bruce Lipton's practice has had a significant impact in the field of psychological suggestion. His work explores how belief systems affect physical health and life outcomes, proposing methods to change lives by reshaping belief systems.

d. **Albert Bandura's Bobo Doll Experiment**: Conducted by psychologist Albert Bandura in the 1960s, this experiment showed that children who watched adults model attacking behavior on a doll would themselves exhibit similar aggressive behaviors, revealing the influence of imitation and suggestion on behavior.

Additionally, I'd like to share some psychology knowledge applicable to the workplace during my spare time. If you're interested, please leave a message in the circle of friends. Before setting up a live broadcast, I will first inquire about needs, perfect the knowledge tree, and then combine real cases to share with everyone.

Axiong’s Essay

The Evolution of Organizational Structure

 

From the **Three Lords and Nine Ministers** system of the Qin Dynasty to the **Three Departments and Six Ministries** of the Tang Dynasty, this can be considered a classic result of organizational structure reform, also known as top-level design in contemporary terms.

The history of private enterprise development also shows similarities in the evolution of organizational structures. Starting in 1978, private organizations were mostly composed of family members, with a structure akin to the Three Lords and Nine Ministers, centered around the personal will and needs of the boss. The prime minister was typically the spouse, the market-facing Grand Commandant was either a child or a sibling, and those in charge of procurement, discipline, and salary deductions were likely aunts and uncles. Thus, the common complaint was that private enterprises were just family businesses, with companies of all sizes filled with royal relatives. This is not unique to us; it's a human trait, where blood is thicker than water due to genetics and heritage.

By the year 2000, with the rise of the manufacturing industry, large-scale enterprises sprouted like bamboo after rain. Relatives and friends were no longer sufficient, so what to do? The structure began to show a functional architecture: marketing, operations, R&D, technology, production, supply chain, finance, and HR, forming a bureaucratic vertical control with clear division of labor and assigned responsibilities; evolving into a state resembling the Three Departments and Six Ministries. Some students raise their hands and ask, has the flat organization of the internet era already subverted traditional structures? I respond seriously with a smile, only 'Teacher Ma' has subverted employees' cognition, the structure has not been affected at all. If you don't believe it, ask people from big companies who can directly share their ideas with 'Teacher Ma'. At most, you have an unread email address or an unreachable landline number. Those myths still reside in the Western management models you always thought were unreliable.

Since bureaucracy is the official structure, why do private enterprises happily use it, knowing full well that it leads to bloated organizations with high costs, yet unable to reform? I have mentioned in my writings on organizational psychological contracts: the management of organizational symbols of security and anxiety.

For example, a boss wants to buy a piece of land for commercial development, ultimately selling condominiums for profit. What's different about the three types of organizational structures? In the Three Lords and Nine Ministers, the spouse and relatives unanimously agree, envisioning a beautiful future, with absolute execution power; your word is law. What about the Three Departments and Six Ministries? It's the same old story with a different twist, where professional managers pass orders up and down, but it's still the boss's personal opinion that prevails. The only difference is that departments try to absolve themselves of responsibility as much as possible, after all, they're just making a living, not seeking disdain. Compared to the previous two, flat organizations seem crazy; after extensive research and repeated debates, if the majority disagrees, the boss's word is useless; if approved, the boss basically makes money with his eyes closed. After hearing this, even a fool would choose a flat organization, so why torment oneself with the previous two? Now, if you put yourself in the shoes of the boss in this case, having worked hard for half your life and saved up some money, whom would you trust to make decisions? You don't need to think too much, you know deep down who makes you feel safe. Isn't it strange that you at least have to consider it, it's not as simple and crude as before. The origin of bureaucracy is absolute control, the sense of security for those with the most to gain, which has little to do with science or objectivity.

So why is America such an outlier, even using flat organizations in government? What I can say is, they have misunderstood "democracy," insisting on it even to the point of shutdown, truly a misguided path.

Private enterprises are not official, yet they resolutely choose a bureaucratic structure, which is also a factor in slow development. The fleeting success of foreign-funded enterprises has left private enterprise bosses puzzled; why do they come to a foreign land, entrust decision-making power to strangers, and still make a fortune? As the second generation successors broaden their horizons and grow increasingly reluctant to take on responsibilities, finding being a shareholder quite pleasant, they will also evolve towards successful structures that have been repeatedly validated by others.

The mountains and rivers remain the same, life and death come and go, all is a pattern.

Axiong’s Essay